European Heart Journal recently published a study that examined at how incidence of coronary heart disease deaths had changed between 1980 and 2009. Researchers found that the rates of heart disease deaths had been cut in half for most European Union nations over that period,
Recent CHD rates are now less than half what they were in the early 1980s in many countries, in younger adult age groups as well as in the population overall. Trends in mortality rates vary markedly between EU countries, but less so between age groups and sexes within countries. Fifteen countries showed evidence of a recent plateauing of trends in at least one age group for men, as did 12 countries for women. This did not, however, appear to be any more common in younger age groups compared with older adults. There was little evidence to support the hypothesis that mortality rates have recently begun to plateau in younger age groups in the EU as a whole, although such plateaus and even a small number of increases in CHD mortality in younger subpopulations were observed in a minority of countries.
One possible explanation for this is that while heart disease still remains the leading cause of death in the EU, the age at which people die from heart disease is steadily being pushed outward (on average),
In many cases, the AAPCs found in this study for the full range of years showed greater reductions in CHD mortality among younger age groups when compared with the 65 years and older group. This apparently smaller reduction in mortality among older adults may be a result of delayed rather than averted CHD mortality, where reductions in mortality among (for example) those aged 65–74 are partially offset by lower rates of reduction among the very old.
The study also addresses concerns that increased incidence of obesity and diabetes may cause this trend to plateau or even reverse. The researchers conclude that while this may yet happen, so far there isn’t much evidence of it,
It remains very plausible that observed increases in preventable risk factors for CHD will have an impact on mortality rates in all age groups including young adults in the future. This effect is, however, not yet clearly apparent across the EU, and there may still be time for public health policy and action to have an impact on these risk factors to prevent such impacts. It is crucial that future research continues to monitor trends in CHD risk factors and mortality across the EU and to examine the relationships between preventable risk factors and CHD among younger adults. Any indications of potential plateauing of CHD mortality trends among younger age groups—which were evident in this study for some countries but not yet for the EU as a whole—would be an important advance warning of potentially very high future burden of CHD as the cohort ages.