The United Nations recently released revised estimates of world population which reduced previous estimates based on a higher than expected increase in AIDS deaths as well as a faster-than-anticipated decline in fertility worldwide.
The UN had previously estimated that world population would grow to 9.3 billion by the year 2050. The latest revision moves that estimate down to 8.9 billion.
The latest estimate puts likely deaths from AIDS by 2050 at 278 million. Even that estimate, however, is likely to be high since the UN still projects a decline in new AIDS cases after 2010. Given that health authorities seem no closer to a vaccine or other cheap, effective remedy for the disease, that assumption seems highly optimistic.
Meanwhile, total fertility rates continue to drop faster than anticipated in the developing world. The UN now predicts that most developing countries will reach fertility levels that are below the replacement level before the end of the 21st century. In fact, the medium variant of its population projects predicts that by 2050 seventy-five percent of developing countries will be at or below replacement fertility levels.
Sources:
World Population Prospects. The 2002 Revision Highlights. United Nations, February 26, 2003.
Grim global toll of AIDS. The BBC, February 26, 2003.
infertility is not really a big problem because of advances in health and medicine. ;-:
infertility could be a thing of the past with our modern day stem cell technology`.`
infertility would be less of a problem today compared to say 10 or 20 years ago:”.