The Population Reference Bureau recently released the 2001 version of its World Population Data Sheet which confirms other reports on the changes in population growth — the developed world’s growth has almost come to a complete stop, while the developing world is slowing but still adding tens of millions of people each year to world population.
The United States is the only developed, industrialized nation in the world whose birth rate exceeds the 2.1 replacement level. As a result, the industrialized world adds only about 1 million people to world population every year.
That compares to the countries of the developing world who combined added about 83 million people to world population last year. The difference in growth rates is so high that the Population Reference Bureau estimates that by 2050, the population of the developed world will have increased by only 49 million, while the population of the developing world will surge by 2.9 billion. In 1950 there were two people in developing countries for every person living in the developed world. By 2050, there will be six people living in developing countries for every person in the more developed world.
Not surprisingly, the difference is largely accounted for by difference in fertility. Women in developed countries average only 1.6 children, compared to 3.6 children per women in less developed countries (excluding China).
The Bureau reports that in some developing countries data suggests that declines in fertility rates have begun to slow. It reports that, “recent survey data from a number of less developed countries, including Bangladesh and Egypt, indicate that fertility declines measured earlier have slowed.”
Russia, meanwhile, continues its catastrophic plummet, experiencing the most rapid decline in population that has been recorded in modern history. The Russian population is currently declining by 0.7 percent per year, largely due to huge increases in mortality (life expectancy in Russia continued to fall for the second year in a row down to 59 years).
Source:
Population levels stabilize in developed countries. National Center for Policy Analysis, May 22, 2001.
21st century will transform world population. Population Reference Bureau, Press Release, May 21, 2001.
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