Within the past few months both the United Nations and the US Census
Bureau released important documents relating to population issues. The United
Nations released its 1998 Revision of the United Nations Population Projections,
which estimates that world population in 2050 will reach likely reach 8.9 billion
(according to its medium variant). This is down significantly from previous
years’ projections. In 1994 the UN estimated 2050’s population would reached
9.8 billion and in 1996 estimated population would reach 9.4 billion. Why does
the projected population keep falling? Because, on the positive side, fertility
keeps falling faster than previously imagined, and on the negative side, deaths
from AIDS are contributing to higher-than-expected mortality rates especially
in Africa and Asia.
The US Census Bureau recently published its annual update of the World Population
Profile. Using a different methodology from the United Nations, the Census Bureau
estimates world population will reach 9.3 billion persons by 2050. The Census
Bureau volume also provides plenty of important statistics about world population
that I’ve been adding to the Overpopulation.Com web site over the past few weeks.
If you’d like to peruse these reports for yourself, a broad summary of the
UN report is available at http://www.popin.org/pop1998/
and the entire Census Bureau report is available as an Adobe Acrobat (PDF) download
at http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/wp98.html