Is China really 300 million people in the hole?

A few weeks ago the Associated Press swallowed
hook, line and sinker a claim made by the Chinese government that had
it not been for that nation’s one-child policy, there would be an
additional 300 million Chinese alive today. As proof the Chinese government
pointed to the decline in birth rates from 1972 to today.

The only problem with this fairy tale is that
the decline in Chinese population growth took place for the most part
before the creation of the one-child policy. Specifically, Chinese
population growth declined dramatically from 1972 to 1979 where it stabilized
and experienced only minor fluctuations in the years since. Of course
the one-child policy took effect in 1979, after the decline in the population
growth rate had already taken place.

Although it has contributed to the extremely
high level of abortion and the wholesale abandonment of children in some
regions, China’s one-child policy doesn’t appear to have significantly
affected its rate of population growth.