In January, China’s population officially passed the 1.3 billion mark according to that country.
Oddly enough, China state-run news media used the birth of the 1.3 billion child to trumpet the success of the one-child policy. But, all things considered, the one-child policy has been an abject failure. It did little to slow China’s population growth — most of the decline in China’s birth rate occurred before the one-child policy was instituted, and the birth rate actually briefly increased after the one-child policy was introduced. Certainly other nations in Europe and Asia have demonstrated that very low birth rates can be achieved without such Draconian measures.
Even China’s state-run media makes very modest claims for the one-child policy, claiming that without the one child policy reaching the 1.3 billion mark would have occurred in 2001 rather than 2005. A typically inefficient policy for the Communist state.
The major effect of the one-child policy has, however, been the highly skewed sex ratio. Currently about 120 boys are born in China for every 100 girls — an astoundingly high imbalance that will likely cause severe social shocks and problems. The one-child policy helped exacerbate this imbalance by giving urban residents an incentive to abort female fetuses.
China could have achieved much more rapid economic growth and lower population growth if the dictatorial Communist Party had simply tried a little more freedom instead of micromanaging the lives of its subjects.
China’s population is not expected to continue to grow much longer. Although demographics mean that it will continue to grow even with very low birth rates, China’s population is expected to top off at 1.46 billion sometime in the 2030s.
Source:
China’s population passes 1.3bn. The BBC, January 6, 2005.
Policy Comes of Age as Population Hits 1.3 Billion. Press Release, Family Planning Commission of China, January 6, 2005.
China’s population reaches 1.3 billion. Associated Press, January 6, 2005.