Day: May 22, 2003

UK Researchers Revise vCJD Death Toll Down from 50,000 to Maybe 540

Researchers at the Imperial College, London, had been some of the last holdouts arguing that the mad cow disease epidemic could result in hundreds of thousands of deaths. When researchers at Saint-Antoine Hospital published a study in late 2001 suggesting that at most a few hundred people would die from VCJD, for example, the Imperial College researchers said that claim was far too low because it ignored initial underreporting of VCJD cases.

But Azra Ghani, Christl Donnelly, Neil Ferguson and Roy Anderson published a study this week that affirmed the findings of studies that projected more conservative results. The Imperial College researchers now project that over the next ten years only 50 to 540 people in Great Britain are likely to develop VCJD from having eaten tainted beef. In addition, most of those cases will occur in the next few years rather than being spread out over the next decade.

Essentially, the researchers looked at their model that had been projecting 50,000 or more cases and then looked at the actual data over the past few years which simply didn’t fit that prediction. Ghani, et al., note that there is now enough evidence to predict with more confidence the incubation period of VCJD which they estimate to have a mean of 12.6 years (which happens to be very close to the estimated 10-13 years that kuru takes to incubate).

Sources:

Updated projections of future vCJD deaths in the UK. Azra Ghani, Christl Donnelly, Neil Ferguson and Roy Anderson, BMC Infectious Diseases, 2003, 3:4.

Scientists cut predictions of human mad cow cases. Patricia Reaney, Reuters, May 20, 2003.

You Mean a Weblog Might Have Long-Term Value?

I guess I shouldn’t be shocked by this, but reading this paragraph from Scripting.Com did leave my jaw hanging wide open.

People want to know why I like the new search so much. I can now easily see what I said about almost anything over time. Sometimes it makes me wince. Most of the time it makes me laugh. It’s the data. I especially like the pictures. They surprise me. It turns my weblog into a long-term thing.

I am really stunned that until just this week Winer had no easy way of mining his weblog for important topical information like this, and, even worse, that he’s just now realizing this might be a good thing to have.

Isn’t this where someone chimes in to say,

I’m amazed that people think Radio Userland is so advanced. They have a long way to go before they catch up to Movable Type and Conversant. . . .Too many steps, too much memorization.

Michigan Comic Con 2003

So last weekend I dragged my wife to the Motor City Comic Con in Novi so I
could get my geek on. It helped that my father-in-law was able to get us a free
pass in (admittance and parking alone would have been $41 — yikes!):

For the record, I did accomplish my main goal, which was to acquire an autographed
photo of my childhood hero, Herbert Jefferson, Jr. aka Lt. Boomer on Battlestar
Galactica. I’ve been to comic conventions before but never got anyone’s autograph.
I want the autograph, I just don’t want to be that guy standing in line for
the autograph, if you know what I mean.

Of course the main reason to visit comic conventions is to see all of the cool
things you could spend money you don’t have on. For example, must … have …
swords:

And while we’re at it, these Wolverine claw replicas are only $300. Maybe I
should have gone for the light saber hilt and posted a video of me doing my
Jedi moves online (on second thought, no, that would not be a good idea):

This is where bringing the wife along creates friction. I think that the giant
leech poster would look great in our living room, to which my wife replies that
I would look great sleeping on the porch.

Obligatory shot of convention geeks dressed as Storm Troopers:

This guy was a bit more original with his “V” costume, though he
should have sprung for some sort of voice modulator for the full effect:

Awesome display of Legos:

This is Jim Ottaviani. I sort of took his picture and then asked permission,
so I might as well pimp his books:

Ottaviani is the masermind behind several comic trade paperbacks dealing with
science such as Dignifying
Science: Stories about Women Scientists:

. . . and Two-Fisted
Science:

I picked both of them up at his booth. Cory Doctorow was raving about these
books at Boing!Boing! months ago, and they are that good. My wife is a Monty
Python fan (imagine that, a medievalist fan of Monty Python — who woulda thunk
it?) She waned this for her office. I figure we could buy thousands of these
for the Department of Homeland Security and solve the terrorism threat once
and for all:

Me, I pretty much stuck to action figures and found a few good deals on some
RPGs. Not a bad way to spend an afternoon.

Man Sues ASPCA, Animal Planet Over Cruelty Allegations

Newsday reports that New Yorker Rossano Case-Irwin has filed a $46 million lawsuit against the American Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals, Animal Planet, and the show Animal Precinct over allegations Animal Precinct broadcast accusing Case-Irwin of cruelty to animals.

Animal Precinct showed ASPCA investigator Annemarie Lucas arresting Case-Irwin on animal cruelty charges as well as featuring video documenting Lucas’ investigation leading up to the arrest.

The case involve a horse that Case-Irwin owned which had a wound on its belly. According to Case-Irwin it was a minor friction wound that a veterinarian informed Lucas was healing properly. Case-Irwin maintains Lucas ignored this to make a case for the cameras.

Case-Irwin was found not guilty of animal cruelty by a jury, but claims he lost his job as a result of the publicity over the case. Case-Irwin says the show featuring his arrest continued to air after his exoneration.

Source:

Cowboy’s arrest spurs $46M lawsuit. Rocco Parascandola, Newsday, April 23, 2003.

Rodeo Exonerated in Case Based on SHARK Videotape

The Whittier Daily reported recently that a California Court Commissioner exonerated the a rodeo that had been accused of cruelty charges based on video taken by Showing Animals Respect and Kindness (SHARK).

Shark took the video at a San Dimas Rodeo in October 2002 and turned it over to the Inland Valley Humane Society. The Humane Society then charged the Growney Brothers Rodeo C. with four counts of misusing a cattle prod.

California has a law that went into effect in 2001 that makes it a crime to use a cattle prod during a rodeo except to protect the participants or audience at a rodeo. SHARK and the Humane Society argued that the videotape showed workers at the rodeo using the cattle prods on four horses to force them out of the chute during a bucking bronco contest.

Pomono Court Commissioner Martin Goetsch ruled in favor of the rodeo, however, saying that he agreed with expert testimony provided by the defense that the use of the cattle prods was designed to protect the rider when horses failed to leave the chute on their own. The Whittier Daily News quoted Goetsch as ruling,

It appears clear to me everybody involved at the chute understands that . . . in each of these cases there was never an attempt to prod any of the horses while the gate was closed.

Goetsch’s decision cannot be appealed.

Sources:

Rodeo provider cleared by judge. Diana L. Roemer, The Whittier Daily News, April 25, 2003.

PRCA rodeo company running from cruelty citations? Showing Animals Respect and Kindness, Press Release, 2002.