The deterioration of the earth’s ecosystem is slowing growth in world food production during the nineties and ushering in an era of scarcity.
-Lester Brown, WorldWatch Press Release, August 16, 1997
Poor Lester Brown. Just like clockwork, when grain prices were temporarily very high in 1996-1997, Brown and WorldWatch said the end was near. It was time to pay the piper for all of the “environmental degradation” around the world and the price would be in food supplies that would be in poorer crop yields and higher food prices — as much as a doubling of food prices.
The reality was much different. The high grain prices in 1996-1997 were simply part of the regular boom/bust cycle of commodity prices and since WorldWatch released that report, crop yields have been near or above world record levels ever since. Grain prices, which WorldWatch thought would double, have collapsed throughout the world leading many countries, including the United States, scratching they’re heads to come up with multi-billion dollar bailouts to farmers who can’t sell their produce profitably thanks to the grain glut.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture, for example, recently released estimates that the size of this year’s corn crop was an incredible 10.4 billion bushels, breaking the record of 10 billion bushels set in 1994. Moreover, this represents more food on less land (i.e. yields are up). The average yield for corn is expected to set a record at 141.9 bushels per acre.
As commodities analyst Bill Biedermann told the Associated Press, “These are massive crops.”
Soybeans are expected to have hit record levels in 2000. American farmers grew almost 3 billion bushels of soybeans in 2000, up 9 percent from 1998’s record level. Yield levels are expected to be 40.7 bushels per acre, the second highest yield on record.
Crops of cotton, wheat, grapes and other commodities are also extremely high, though short of record levels. Contrary to WorldWatch’s prediction that by now we’d be experiencing the horrors of widespread environmental degradation, instead we’re reaping the benefits of intelligent management of crops as well as free market incentives for farmers to produce food to feed both the United States and the world.
Source:
USDA: Farmers expect record corn, soybean harvest. The Associated Press, August 11, 2000.
Rising Grain Prices May Disrupt Global Economic Progress. World Watch Institute Press Release, August 16, 1997.