Brian.Carnell.Com

When I started this weekly feature a month ago I was worried about finding enough new material each week. Instead I find myself deluged with enough news stories and journal articles to do an entire year’s worth of news updates. If there’s any topic relating to overpopulation on which you’d like to hear about the latest research, email me and let me know.

Although Africa’s collective problems are still enormous (witness recent events in Rwanda, Burundi and Zaire), but there are indications that at least parts of Africa may be turning the tide. MSNBC recently ran a multi-part series examining the state of Africa. Aside from South Africa, the continent’s bright spot is East Africa.

Specifically democracy appears to be blooming East African states. Uganda and Malawai have embraced democracy and 10 percent economic growth in 1996. Scott Moore, MSNBC reporter, notes that Tanzania and Eritrea appear to be remaining stable after years of civil war and other problems.

And Kenya appears to be on the road to democratization as well. Strongman president Daniel arap Moi facing serious economic problems is lifting long-standing policies of harsh repression of pro-democracy demonstrators and will be meeting with opposition leaders to discuss political reform.

According to Moore, both Tanzanian and Uganda have benefited by dumping socialist command economies and central planning and embracing the free market. In Uganda Yoweri Museveni abolished monopolies and launched a privatization program which has increased both industrial and agricultural production. Tanzania has gone so far as to create a stock exchange.

Bottom line — freedom works.

With the proliferation of the Internet, most of the data and other information regarding population are now conveniently found on the web. So now when someone emails me, as often happens, that my population numbers are a crock, I can point them to the US Census Bureau’s on-line estimate of world population through 2050.

There are two interesting things to note about these figures. The first, of course, is that the mid-year population projection for 2050 is 9.3 billion people — far lower than some of the irresponsibly high numbers which are often tossed around as if they are inevitable.

Second, the actual world population total could be far lower. Consider, for example, that from 1986 to 1996, the average annual growth rate declined by .28 percent — close to a .03 percent decline per year. In fact since 1970 the world has experienced an average .255 percent decline each year. But for its projections, the Census Bureau assumes only a .02 percent drop each year.

Of course, on the other hand even small decreases in this rate could drive the population in 2050 far higher, but so far all of the available evidence is consistent with a continuing fall in worldwide fertility rates and thus population growth rates.

While people in the West worry about cancer and heart disease, worldwide malaria is still a nightmare killer. According to a story in the Jan. 20, 1997 <iUS News and World Report, in rural Africa Malaria claims 1 in 20 children under the age of 5.

Unfortunately there’s been a recent spate of good news about malaria. Back in January the New England Journal of Medicine reported on a vaccine for malaria which had an 80 percent success rate in preliminary studies. Just a few days ago CNN reported that researchers at the University of Illinois might have found a safe, natural way of killing mosquitoes using an oil derived from soybeans which suffocates the mosquito larvae.

Both initiatives still require several years of further testing, but if either or both are successful, countless deaths from malaria could be avoided. And there’s the problem.

What happens if fewer children in Africa die? That’s right, the population increases even more than it already is. Now, I think keeping children from dying from malaria would be a good thing even with the additional increase in population levels. Lets hope the anti-population activists have gotten over their attacks on the irresponsibility of decreasing infant mortality in the Third World and embrace this advance as well.

&nbspSummer, of course, is generally the time when gasoline prices shoot through the roof. Last year they briefly went so high that President Bill Clinton ordered the Justice Department to investigate oil companies for price fixing. On July 28, 1997 CNN reported that in the midst of the summer gasoline prices continue their now seven-month long decline (the average price of gasoline nationally was $1.24 per gallon on July 25).

For those who think this is an excessively high price, the American Petroleum Institute estimates that over 1/3 of the cost of a gallon of gas goes simply to pay various federal, state and local taxes.

Oh, and for those concerned by reports of what are often characterized as low levels of oil in world reserves, a report last year by the American Institute for Economic Research explains the reserve situation has nothing to do with total available oil supplies but instead is a profit maximizing strategy by oil companies. As the AIER puts it, “Supplies (inventories) of petroleum in general are low, as are U.S. inventories of gasoline, in particular. Oilmen around the world have been trying to avoid holding excessive amounts of what could prove to be high-cost oil when and if Iraq is again allowed to sell in the world markets.”

In talking in person or through e-mail with people about population issues
I am consistently struck by the lack of interest or awareness of serious academic
resources on the topic. Demographers and others do write and publish lots of
extremely helpful information on population-related issues.

Probably the best for laypeople and professionals alike is publications by
the Population Reference Bureau, Inc.
The PRB publishes quarterly “Population Bulletins” which look in depth
at specific issues along with a monthly newsletter and other resources. Individual
subscriptions to a year’s worth of PRB publications runs $49 and can be had
by writing the PRB at 1875 Connecticut Ave. NW Suite 520, Washington, DC, 20009.
For those without $49, PRB publications are available at many libraries and
on the web.