Election Prediction vs. Wish

I thought the Yankees were going to sweep the Red Sox, so my prognisticating isn’t very good. That said, my prediction for Tuesday’s election — Kerry pulls out a win. If you look at the Real Clear Politics graph of the daily average of the major polls, the race has been pretty stable with Bush having a 2-3 point lead. That’s just not good enough, in my opinion, for an incumbent president to win. I think on election day most of the battleground states will see very high turnout from Democratic voters and Kerry will win.

What I am hoping for is that there will be an electoral tie, Bush loses the popular vote again, and the House elects Bush (since Republicans will almost certainly have the majority in the screwed up system the Constitution requires the House to use). If that happens, the controversy over 2000 will look like a tempest in a teapot. Now that would be reality TV worth watching.

And it would probably finally bring about a serious movement to simply have direct election of presidents and ditch this electoral college relic.

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