At this point a number of big losers are evident tonight.
The obvious one is the polls. Not only were the polls wrong again, but they were wrong in estimating the president’s support. Zogby’s infamous comment that he needed to readjust his results to get the “right” result stands as perhaps the outstanding example that polling has become less of a science and more of an art — and at the moment its redeeming qualities are up there with paint-by-numbers kits.
Second, gay marriage was a big loser. One of the reasons I wanted to vote was to vote against the measure in Michigan that added a ban on gay marriage to the constitution. It passed by overwhelming margins, and similar ballot proposals passed in 11 other states. With such a string of victories, look for this to be a huge issue again in 2006. Look for some commentators to claim that Kerry’s attempt at straddling the issue was partially responsible for his defeat, but can the Democrats remain coherent as a party if they drink the anti-gay marriage Kool Aid?
Which brings us to the final big loser, the Democratic Party. This is two consecutive electios in which the Democrats went in thinking they were poised for major success only to find the Republicans increasing their majorities in the House and Senate. The post-Clinton era has been an unmitigated disaster for the Democrats — they’re in danger of becoming a permanent minority party.
The problem is that they don’t have a lot of room to maneuver. Tack to far to the right, and they risk the Left abandoning them for a Green Party or other left wing party challenge. Tack to far to the Left, and they simply exacerbate the problems evident in this election.