The Cambodian Version of Ground Hog Day

It is interesting that Cambodia has its own version of Groundhog Day, only with a sacred cows that chooses from different dishes (and their decisions are aggregated — how democratic!),

Cambodia’s sacred oxen on Monday predicted a dry but peaceful year ahead, eating a healthy diet of beans and rice at the kingdom’s ancient royal ploughing ceremony, but turning their noses up at a bowl of water.

Offered a range of dishes, the oxen steered clear of alcohol – which signifies fighting and turmoil – suggesting that the run-up to general elections in July would not see the violence that has plagued other polls in the war-scarred south-east Asian nation.

“The royal cows ate 30 percent of the rice, 96 percent of the beans and 36 percent of the corn. The prediction is that we will have a good crop for this year,” royal astrologer Kong Ken told a crowd of several thousand in the heart of the capital.

Now all they need is a movie starring Bill Murray a the royal astrologer who has to keep living the same day over and over again.

Source:

Cambodia’s cows see the future in a rice bowl. Reuters, May 19, 2003.

Who Wants to Live Forever?

I’ve been meaning to post a link to Ronald Bailey’s excellent survey of life extension technologies and controversies, Forever Young for several months now. Okay, there — I finally did it.

Bailey does a nice job of covering the long-running battle between longevity optimists and pessimists, including the $500 million bet between demographer Jay Olshansky and biologist Steven Austad. The two set up a trust fund with $150 that has to pay the loser or his heirs $500 million in 2150 depending on whether or not there is anyone alive then who is at least 150 years old — Olshansky is betting against the possibility.

But as Bailey points out, demographers have a long history of making inaccurate predictions about future longevity. He cites, for example, demographer Louis Dublin’s 1928 prediction that average life expectancy in the United States would never rise above 64.75 years. Today, of course, average life expectancy exceeds that figure by almost 12 years.

The longest living person whose age can be verified, of course, was Jeanne Calment who died in 1997 at the age of 122. So assuming that’s the upper bound for life expectancy without any upcoming radical life extension therapies, Austad looks like he’s got a pretty good chance of winning his bet.

Bailey also surveys the current status of life extension research from the results of calorie restriction to vitamin supplements, hormone replacement therapy, and the possibility of nanomedical technique to repair damage to our bodies and thereby extend our lives.

And Bailey also does his usual nice job of skewering the critics who think that an average human life span of 150 years would be a bad thing. Leon Kass, who unfortunately is one of the folks the Bush administration keeps calling on for bioethical advice, believes that people who lived very long life spans or were even effectively immortal barring accidents, murder, etc. would no longer be truly human (and unlike the Extropians, he considers that a very bad thing).

I, of course, agree completely Bailey who ends his long article by writing,

“A dramatic increase in lifespan is inevitable,” Aubrey de Grey said in the British Sunday Times two years ago. “We understand aging at the molecular level sufficiently to not just imagine interventions to retard aging, but enough that we can describe them. It’s an engineering project now, not a scientific one. We just don’t know how long it will take.”

To which I say: Hurry up! The 22nd century looks too interesting to miss.

Source:

Forever Young. Ronald Bailey, Reason, August 2002.

Arab Music Videos vs. Cosmo Covers at Wal-Mart

Here’s an interesting juxtaposition of pop culture happenings.

First, Charles Paul Freund does his usual excellent job of highlighting the cultural and political implications of pop culture trends with his article on pop music videos in Arab countries.

Freund leads off his story writing,

One of the more interesting music videos released last year features an attractive brunette who, according to the videoÂ’s narrative, is involved in a liaison taking place in a Paris hotel room. The visual narrative seems to offer the womanÂ’s often disconnected impressions of this apparently illicit relationship: Sometimes a man with a calculating smile is in the room with her; sometimes sheÂ’s there alone, as if waiting for him. Naturally, the video is drenched in images of desire, especially the womanÂ’s erotic perceptions of the liaison and of herself.

. . .

Eroticism like this, which seems to emerge from the pages of a VictoriaÂ’s Secret catalog, isnÂ’t usually very noteworthy. Indeed, the videoÂ’s assumption that thereÂ’s something “forbidden” about its subject matter that must be approached in an “artistic” fashion may seem outdated. But in this case it is exactly such elements that make the production compelling. The reason is the videoÂ’s cultural context: This is not an American or European or Japanese video; it is an Arab artifact. The woman is a singer named Elissa; her song, which has made her a leading celebrity in the Mideast, is entitled “Aychaylak” (“I Live for You”); and both her song and her video were among last yearÂ’s biggest music hits in the Arabic-speaking world.

Freund notes that the interesting part is less the eroticism and sex of this and other music and videos that are increasingly popular in the region, as much as it is the fluid identity-making it offers which is so much a part of modern Western secular culture that most of us typically forget just how revolutionary it is,

Can that be what is happening with Arabic videos? While they are entertaining and titillating viewers, they are also transmitting new ways of being to an apparently receptive audience, new and multiplying approaches to being an “Arab” that combine traditional forms of cultural self-presentation with forms borrowed from an array of other sources. The combinations that promise to emerge would not be mere copies of borrowed foreign models; they would be new and indigenous cultural creations, just as is the case in cultures around the world. This syncretism is already true of the music itself, which not only uses traditional Arabic instrumentation (nye, oud, qanoon, etc.) in new ways but also borrows instruments and rhythms from the Caribbean, Europe, India, rock, rap (including rap in Spanish), and numerous other sources.

What this low, “vulgar” genre is offering, in sum, is a glimpse of a latent Arab world that is both liberal and “modernized.” Why? Because the foundation of cultural modernity is the freedom to achieve a self-fashioned and fluid identity, the freedom to imagine yourself on your own terms, and the videos offer a route to that process. By contrast, much of Arab culture remains a place of constricted, traditional, and narrowly defined identities, often subsumed in group identities that hinge on differences with, and antagonism toward, other groups.

It is interesting to note that, at the same time, there is also a backlash against what many people see as an “R-rated culture” in the United States. Just this week, for example, Wal Mart agreed to hide the covers, and in some cases simply stop selling, several magazines that continually push the boundary between pornographic and non-pornographic works. It will cover up Cosmopolitan, Glamour, Marie Claire and Redbook, while Wal Mart announced earlier it would simply stop selling men’s magazines FHM, Maxim and Stuff.

Sources:

Look WhoÂ’s Rocking the Casbah: The revolutionary implications of Arab music videos. Charles Paul Freund, Reason, June 2003.

Wal-Mart to Block Some Magazine Covers. Associated Press, June 6, 2003.

Marin County Breast Cancer Data Faulty

There has been a long-simmering controversy over breast cancer rates in Marin County, California. Marin County is one of the wealthiest counties in the United States and also has one of the highest breast cancer rates — 198 cases per 100,000 population compared to a national average of 139 per 100,000 for the rest of the country.

Activists who believe that pollution is a major contributor to breast cancer seized on this cancer cluster as evidence for their views, although a number of alternative explanations were possible. But now it turns out that there is an even better explanation — the data that claimed Marin County had a breast cancer incidence of 198 cases per 100,000 population appears to have been faulty.

The faulty data came to light after research in 2002 said that the rate of cancer for white women in Marin County had increased from 191 cases per 100,000 in 1998 to 230 cases per 100,000 in 1999. That sort of massive jump was extremely suspicious.

It turns out that such estimates had been using faulty data from the U.S. Census Bureau that dramatically undercounted the population of women in Marin County. Census data from 2000 showed that the 1990 estimates that such studies had been using underreported the number of white women 45-64 in Marin County by close to 20 percent. Revised breast cancer rates have not been released.

Ironically, another recent study of breast cancer among women in Marin County will also not please the activist who want pollution to be the cause and accuse researchers of “blaming the victim” anytime another cause is put forward.

A study by researchers at the University of California, San Francisco and published in the online journal Breast Cancer Research found a strong correlation between alcohol consumption and breast cancer among women in Marin County. Women who consumed two drinks a day had twice the breast cancer risk, and the risk increased with self-reported alcohol consumption.

That study was small, comparing 285 Marin County women with breast cancer to 286 healthy women living in the county. But it did find no correlation between breast cancer and length of time living in Marin County, suggesting the high breast cancer rate in Marin County has something to do with a confounding factor that women there share rather than something to do with Marin County itself.

Source:

Marin County breast cancer rates not as high as once thought. Justin Pritchard, Associated Press, April 4, 2003.

Study: Marin breast cancer related to alcohol consumption. Associated Press, May 7, 2003.

Mayo Clinic Study: Death Rate Among Anorexia Nervosa Patients Exaggerated

A Mayo Clinic study that looked at mortality rates among patients with anorexia nervosa over a period of 60 years concluded that people diagnosed with the disorder die at the same rate as people who do not have the disorder. This contradicts both previous clinical studies as well as many commonly cited claims that the death rate for people with the disorder is extremely high.

The commonly repeated claim is that individuals with anorexia nervosa have a mortality rate that is an astounding 12 times higher than the general population. But, as an epidemiologist with the Mayo Clinic points out, that is because previous studies were generally conducted in hospital settings where individuals with the most advanced cases of the disorder would be overrepresented.

Searching medical records, the Mayo Clinic identified 208 patients who met the criteria for an anorexia nervosa diagnosis between 1935 and 1989. The researchers found that those patients had the same death rate as the general population.

Mayo Clinic epidemiologist Joseph Melton said that,

Although our data suggest that overall mortality is not increased among community patients with anorexia nervosa in general, these findings should not lead to complacency in clinical practice because deaths do occur.

Patrick Sullivan, a professor of psychiatry and genetics at the University of Carolina at Chapel Hill, wrote in an editorial accompanying the study that what it showed was that anorexia nervosa symptoms occurred along a spectrum. Those with the most severe cases — such as those requiring hospitalization — may indeed have a higher mortality rate, but it is important to make distinctions between the degree of severity of the disease rather than lumping all cases in with the most severe and claiming that anyone with the disorder has a 12 times higher mortality rate.

Source:

Death rate for eating disorder not unusual. Brad Evenson, National Post (Canada), March 12, 2003.