UNAIDS released a report in July claiming that the AIDS epidemic is still in its initial phases, and that the total deaths to AIDS in the developing world will grow to horrific heights over the next few decades.
In the 45 countries where HIV prevalence is the highest, UNAIDS estimates that as many as 68 million people will die from AIDS-related causes between 2000 and 2020. From 1980 to 2000, roughly 13 million people died from AIDS-related causes in those countries.
There was some hope that AIDS prevalence rates might begin to stabilize, but in many of the hardest hit countries they show no such signs. In Zimbabwe, for example, HIV rates jumped from 25 percent in 1997 to 33 percent in 2001. In Botswana, HIV prevalence jumped from 36 percent in 1999 to 39 percent in 2001 — and, as a result, life expectancy in that country is below 40 years for the first time since 1950.
UNAIDS executive director Peter Piot told Reuters, “We haven’t reached the peak of the AIDS epidemic yet. It’s an unprecedented epidemic in human history.”
While Africa will be the main focal point of the deaths, with an estimated 55 million dead, Asia will also suffer major losses of more than 10 million AIDS-related deaths. The main fear is that Asia’s HIV epidemic may explode like Africa’s has. UN AIDS expert Sandra Calvani told NewScientist,
The trend [in Asia] looks like the same as the beginning of the epidemic in Africa. One million infections [in 2001] means 3,000 per day, or 120 per hour. These are shocking figures.
Sources:
UN: AIDS will claim 70 million by 2022. Reuters, July 2, 2002.
Global AIDS epidemic “in early phase”. Emma Young, NewScientist.Com, July 2, 2002.