Responding to a MacWeek article (itself responding to the latest round of “Apple Is Dead” stories), Don Larson really captures the source of Apple’s current problems and future potential:
Until the MacOS runs on alternative platforms, most people will perceive the Mac as a niche product and treat it that way in the marketplace. For almost twenty years the press has heralded the death of Apple in one form or another because of it’s non-traditional stance on computer products. Now with the rise of Open Systems, Linux, and a variety of products to exchange information, it’s time for Apple to stop being niche and move into the mainstream of this new era. Doing that will serve millions of new customers and avoid bad press for the most trivial speed-bumps of the stock market.
This speaks to the main underlying problem with Apple sales — too many sales of its products going to current Mac users upgrading or adding systems, with not enough penetration into the PC market. That shouldn’t be surprising. If I’ve got thousands of dollars in PC software, Apple’s going to have to come out with a damn good machine to get me to buy in, and so far Apple hasn’t produced that (in fact I doubt they can at a profitable price point).
What Apple could do, however, is port the OS so it can run on an Intel/AMD box, so I can run Windows or the Mac OS. There is a huge upside to this: although Apple pretty much ceded it the consumer OS market, Microsoft has done pretty much nothing to give consumers a reason to use Windows except for the fact that it is the market leader in the Intel/AMD domain. Rather than create a compelling OS that would have no problem competing with a ported Mac OS, Microsoft has cruised on its exclusive position and, if anything, the current Windows Millenium is actually worse than the original Windows 95 as far as ease-of-use (one thing I hate about Windows ME is that it defaults so all menus only show the options that are most often chosen a la the bug/feature that debuted with Office 2000).
Unfortunately, as long as Steve Jobs is pulling the strings, a port of the OS is never going to happen, and the current market analysis of Apple’s future prospects is probably justified.