Thank Goodness For Progress

The 20th century has seen numerous improvements in health and the result is a much larger population. But exactly how much larger is the population because of these changes in health? In an article in the September 1996 Population and Development Review, Kevin M. White and Samuel H. Preston underscore just how significant the change has been by looking at what the population of the United States would be if death rates in 1900 had remained stable.

White and Preston offer four scenarios of population size in 2000. The actual estimated population in the U.S. in 2000 is 276 million persons. If, on the other hand, death rates at all ages had been fixed at 1900 levels, the population in 2000 would only have been 139 million people.

Most of the difference is accounted for by reducing childhood death. When death rates for 0-14 are fixed at 1900 levels but death rates for other age groups vary at actual rates, the population jumps to 186 million.

When death rates for ages 15-49 are fixed at 1900 levels, the population jumps to 225 million, and when death rates for ages 50+ are fixed at 1900 levels the population jumps to 258 million.

Although decreasing infant mortality and early childhood death have been of overwhelming importance, the population would still be only half of what it is today had it not been in improvements in mortality rates for those aged 15 and over.

My Kingdom For A Barrel Of Oil

&nbspSummer, of course, is generally the time when gasoline prices shoot through the roof. Last year they briefly went so high that President Bill Clinton ordered the Justice Department to investigate oil companies for price fixing. On July 28, 1997 CNN reported that in the midst of the summer gasoline prices continue their now seven-month long decline (the average price of gasoline nationally was $1.24 per gallon on July 25).

For those who think this is an excessively high price, the American Petroleum Institute estimates that over 1/3 of the cost of a gallon of gas goes simply to pay various federal, state and local taxes.

Oh, and for those concerned by reports of what are often characterized as low levels of oil in world reserves, a report last year by the American Institute for Economic Research explains the reserve situation has nothing to do with total available oil supplies but instead is a profit maximizing strategy by oil companies. As the AIER puts it, “Supplies (inventories) of petroleum in general are low, as are U.S. inventories of gasoline, in particular. Oilmen around the world have been trying to avoid holding excessive amounts of what could prove to be high-cost oil when and if Iraq is again allowed to sell in the world markets.”

Bad News For Malaria (And Maybe Population Projections)

While people in the West worry about cancer and heart disease, worldwide malaria is still a nightmare killer. According to a story in the Jan. 20, 1997 <iUS News and World Report, in rural Africa Malaria claims 1 in 20 children under the age of 5.

Unfortunately there’s been a recent spate of good news about malaria. Back in January the New England Journal of Medicine reported on a vaccine for malaria which had an 80 percent success rate in preliminary studies. Just a few days ago CNN reported that researchers at the University of Illinois might have found a safe, natural way of killing mosquitoes using an oil derived from soybeans which suffocates the mosquito larvae.

Both initiatives still require several years of further testing, but if either or both are successful, countless deaths from malaria could be avoided. And there’s the problem.

What happens if fewer children in Africa die? That’s right, the population increases even more than it already is. Now, I think keeping children from dying from malaria would be a good thing even with the additional increase in population levels. Lets hope the anti-population activists have gotten over their attacks on the irresponsibility of decreasing infant mortality in the Third World and embrace this advance as well.

Population Projections — Really, I’m Not Lying

With the proliferation of the Internet, most of the data and other information regarding population are now conveniently found on the web. So now when someone emails me, as often happens, that my population numbers are a crock, I can point them to the US Census Bureau’s on-line estimate of world population through 2050.

There are two interesting things to note about these figures. The first, of course, is that the mid-year population projection for 2050 is 9.3 billion people — far lower than some of the irresponsibly high numbers which are often tossed around as if they are inevitable.

Second, the actual world population total could be far lower. Consider, for example, that from 1986 to 1996, the average annual growth rate declined by .28 percent — close to a .03 percent decline per year. In fact since 1970 the world has experienced an average .255 percent decline each year. But for its projections, the Census Bureau assumes only a .02 percent drop each year.

Of course, on the other hand even small decreases in this rate could drive the population in 2050 far higher, but so far all of the available evidence is consistent with a continuing fall in worldwide fertility rates and thus population growth rates.

Africa On The Edge Of Prosperity

Although Africa’s collective problems are still enormous (witness recent events in Rwanda, Burundi and Zaire), but there are indications that at least parts of Africa may be turning the tide. MSNBC recently ran a multi-part series examining the state of Africa. Aside from South Africa, the continent’s bright spot is East Africa.

Specifically democracy appears to be blooming East African states. Uganda and Malawai have embraced democracy and 10 percent economic growth in 1996. Scott Moore, MSNBC reporter, notes that Tanzania and Eritrea appear to be remaining stable after years of civil war and other problems.

And Kenya appears to be on the road to democratization as well. Strongman president Daniel arap Moi facing serious economic problems is lifting long-standing policies of harsh repression of pro-democracy demonstrators and will be meeting with opposition leaders to discuss political reform.

According to Moore, both Tanzanian and Uganda have benefited by dumping socialist command economies and central planning and embracing the free market. In Uganda Yoweri Museveni abolished monopolies and launched a privatization program which has increased both industrial and agricultural production. Tanzania has gone so far as to create a stock exchange.

Bottom line — freedom works.

Ehrlich vs. Ehrlich

An excellent article by Glenn Hodges in the Jan./Feb. issue of The Washington
Monthly
illustrates the hypocrisy of doomsayers such as Paul Ehrlich
who believe in one criteria to judge themselves and an entirely separate criteria
to judge anyone who dares disagree with them.

Discussing Ehrlich’s numerous failed predictions over the past quarter century,
Hodges cites a 1990 interview in Stanford magazine which quoted Ehrlich
as saying, “Everyone wants to know what’s going to happen. So, the question
is, Do you say, ‘I don’t know,’ in which case they all go back to bed — or
do you say, ‘Hell, in ten years you’re likely to be going without food and water’
and [get] their attention?”

To Ehrlich, then, it’s okay if most of his predictions are extremely exaggerated
and rarely reflect reality since they serve as a wakeup call. Of course, when
it comes to his critics, the tables are turned. As Ehrlich and his wife Anne
write in their 1996 book, The Betrayal of Science and Reason, “[W]e
and our colleagues in environmental science make no claim to perfection, only
to doing science as it should be done and to having our work constantly reviewed
by peers so that it represents more than our own idiosyncratic opinions.”